Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wisla | Draw | Cracovia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 52% | 25% | 24% |
| Best price on offer | 1.81 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Wisla and Cracovia are rated almost level (1341 and 1332).
-
Home advantage Favours Wisla
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Wisla's chance of winning and takes the same from Cracovia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Wisla
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Wisla score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Ekstraklasa); Cracovia concede 2.0 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Wisla LWDLW, barely moved; Cracovia LLDWL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Wisla 52%, Cracovia 24%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WislaCracovia
09/11
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wisla | Draw | Cracovia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla | 31%3.20 | 3%29.24 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.29 | 14%7.27 | 6%15.46 |
| Cracovia | 4%25.64 | 6%16.16 | 15%6.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- D Cracovia vs Wisla 0-0
- W Wisla vs Cracovia 1-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Wisla's side.