Sudtirol
30%
Fair odds 3.33
Cremonese
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.38
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sudtirol | Draw | Cremonese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cremonese
Cremonese are rated 72 points above Sudtirol (1399 to 1327), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sudtirol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sudtirol's chance of winning and takes the same from Cremonese's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cremonese
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.4. Sudtirol score 0.8 a match against an average side (22nd in Serie B); Cremonese concede 1.4 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cremonese
Sudtirol DLDLD, lost 28 rating points; Cremonese WWLLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Sudtirol won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SudtirolCremoneseSudtirol
2/10 over 2.5
11 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Cremonese
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sudtirol | Draw | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol | 17%5.74 | 5%19.96 | 2%44.44 |
| Level | 12%8.66 | 17%5.89 | 16%6.39 |
| Cremonese | 2%61.35 | 5%20.88 | 25%4.04 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Sudtirol wins2Cremonese wins- L Cremonese vs Sudtirol 3-1
- L Sudtirol vs Cremonese 0-4
- W Sudtirol vs Cremonese 3-0
- W Cremonese vs Sudtirol 0-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sudtirol's side.