Vicenza
30%
Fair odds 3.36Bookmakers 33%
Cremonese
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28Bookmakers 39%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vicenza | Draw | Cremonese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 33% | 29% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.45 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cremonese
Cremonese are rated 100 points above Vicenza (1399 to 1299), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vicenza
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vicenza's chance of winning and takes the same from Cremonese's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cremonese
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Vicenza score 0.8 a match against an average side (20th in Serie B); Cremonese concede 1.4 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vicenza LLWDL, lost 7 rating points; Cremonese WWLLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Vicenza
Bookmakers rate Vicenza higher than the model does: Vicenza 33% against the model's 30%, Cremonese 39% against 44%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VicenzaCremoneseVicenza
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
08/21
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/27
11/01
Cremonese
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 48%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vicenza | Draw | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vicenza | 17%5.93 | 5%20.53 | 2%42.02 |
| Level | 11%8.73 | 15%6.51 | 15%6.56 |
| Cremonese | 2%51.55 | 5%19.38 | 27%3.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Vicenza wins1Cremonese wins- D Cremonese vs Vicenza 0-0
- L Vicenza vs Cremonese 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vicenza's side.