Gillingham
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.55
Crewe
33%
Fair odds 3.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gillingham | Draw | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Crewe
Crewe are rated 44 points above Gillingham (1219 to 1174), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gillingham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gillingham's chance of winning and takes the same from Crewe's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Gillingham score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in League Two); Crewe concede 2.2 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Gillingham WLDLW, gained 5 rating points; Crewe DLLWW, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Gillingham won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GillinghamCreweGillingham
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Crewe
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gillingham | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 24%4.25 | 5%18.83 | 2%47.85 |
| Level | 14%6.97 | 17%5.90 | 13%7.47 |
| Crewe | 2%51.81 | 5%21.79 | 18%5.60 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Gillingham wins4Crewe wins- L Crewe vs Gillingham 1-0
- W Gillingham vs Crewe 1-0
- D Gillingham vs Crewe 0-0
- L Crewe vs Gillingham 2-0
- D Gillingham vs Crewe 0-0
- L Crewe vs Gillingham 2-0
- W Gillingham vs Crewe 2-1
- D Crewe vs Gillingham 1-1
- W Gillingham vs Crewe 1-0
- L Crewe vs Gillingham 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gillingham's side.