Guadalajara Chivas
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.38
Cruz Azul
32%
Fair odds 3.10
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Guadalajara Chivas | Draw | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul are rated 65 points above Guadalajara Chivas (1517 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Guadalajara Chivas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Guadalajara Chivas's chance of winning and takes the same from Cruz Azul's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Guadalajara Chivas
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Guadalajara Chivas score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in Liga MX); Cruz Azul concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Guadalajara Chivas WWWDD, gained 12 rating points; Cruz Azul WWWWD, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Cruz Azul
Guadalajara Chivas won 3, drew 3 and lost 8 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Guadalajara ChivasCruz AzulGuadalajara Chivas
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
9 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/14
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/18
10/21
10/25
11/01
Cruz Azul
8/10 over 2.5
26 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/13
09/20
09/26
10/12
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Guadalajara Chivas | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 28%3.63 | 6%17.54 | 2%43.67 |
| Level | 13%7.77 | 14%6.90 | 12%8.51 |
| Cruz Azul | 2%48.78 | 5%21.46 | 19%5.36 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Guadalajara Chivas wins8Cruz Azul wins- L Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul 1-2
- D Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas 2-2
- L Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas 2-1
- L Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas 3-2
- D Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul 0-0
- L Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul 1-2
- L Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul 0-1
- L Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas 1-0
- L Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas 3-0
- W Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul 1-0
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Guadalajara Chivas's side.