Tigres UANL
24%
Fair odds 4.19Bookmakers 33%
Cruz Azul
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95Bookmakers 41%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Tigres UANL: 24% here, 33% with bookmakers; Cruz Azul: 51% here, 41% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tigres UANL | Draw | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Best price on offer | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.26 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul are rated 132 points above Tigres UANL (1517 to 1385), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tigres UANL
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tigres UANL's chance of winning and takes the same from Cruz Azul's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cruz Azul
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.7. Tigres UANL score 0.8 a match against an average side (15th in Liga MX); Cruz Azul concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cruz Azul
Tigres UANL LDLDW, lost 14 rating points; Cruz Azul WWWWD, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Tigres UANL
Bookmakers rate Tigres UANL higher than the model does: Tigres UANL 33% against the model's 24%, Cruz Azul 41% against 51%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Tigres UANL won 4, drew 6 and lost 4 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Tigres UANLCruz AzulTigres UANL
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
12 conceded
09/06
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
Cruz Azul
8/10 over 2.5
26 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/13
09/20
09/26
10/12
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tigres UANL | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 20%5.05 | 9%10.96 | 7%15.13 |
| Level | 4%23.70 | 13%7.70 | 22%4.56 |
| Cruz Azul | 0%— | 2%55.87 | 23%4.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Tigres UANL wins4Cruz Azul wins- L Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL 2-1
- D Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul 1-1
- D Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL 1-1
- D Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul 1-1
- W Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul 2-1
- D Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL 1-1
- L Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL 1-0
- W Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul 2-1
- W Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL 0-1
- L Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul 2-3
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tigres UANL's side.