Chapecoense-SC
13%
Fair odds 7.63
Cruzeiro
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.49
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Chapecoense-SC | Draw | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| Elo model | 15% | 24% | 61% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro are rated 239 points above Chapecoense-SC (1447 to 1207), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Chapecoense-SC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Chapecoense-SC's chance of winning and takes the same from Cruzeiro's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cruzeiro
Expected goals 0.8 to 2.2. Chapecoense-SC score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in Brasileirão); Cruzeiro concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-SC LWLLL, lost 14 rating points; Cruzeiro WWWLW, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Chapecoense-SCCruzeiroChapecoense-SC
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/08
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/28
Cruzeiro
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/13
10/18
10/23
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 0-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Chapecoense-SC | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC | 13%7.75 | 10%9.75 | 12%8.09 |
| Level | 1%— | 9%11.55 | 30%3.34 |
| Cruzeiro | 0%— | 0%— | 25%3.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Chapecoense-SC wins1Cruzeiro wins- L Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-SC 2-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Chapecoense-SC's side.