Coventry
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.22
Crystal Palace
29%
Fair odds 3.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Coventry | Draw | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Coventry
Coventry are rated 26 points above Crystal Palace (1551 to 1524), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Coventry
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Coventry's chance of winning and takes the same from Crystal Palace's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Coventry
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Coventry score 1.4 a match against an average side (17th in Premier League); Crystal Palace concede 1.2 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Coventry
Coventry WLLWW, gained 11 rating points; Crystal Palace DLLDL, lost 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CoventryCrystal PalaceCoventry
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
05/02
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/12
10/19
10/24
10/31
Crystal Palace
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Coventry | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 29%3.40 | 6%16.31 | 3%37.74 |
| Level | 14%7.10 | 14%6.90 | 12%8.00 |
| Crystal Palace | 2%50.76 | 4%24.75 | 15%6.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.