Bochum
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.76
Darmstadt
20%
Fair odds 4.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bochum | Draw | Darmstadt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bochum
Bochum are rated 24 points above Darmstadt (1356 to 1332), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bochum
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bochum's chance of winning and takes the same from Darmstadt's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bochum
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Bochum score 1.0 a match against an average side (12th in 2. Bundesliga); Darmstadt concede 2.0 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Bochum WDLLL, lost 12 rating points; Darmstadt DDLWL, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Bochum won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BochumDarmstadtBochum
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
08/07
08/14
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
10/30
Darmstadt
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bochum | Draw | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum | 35%2.87 | 4%24.75 | 1%88.50 |
| Level | 19%5.30 | 13%7.64 | 7%14.10 |
| Darmstadt | 3%28.90 | 5%19.49 | 12%8.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Bochum wins1Darmstadt wins- D Bochum vs Darmstadt 3-3
- L Darmstadt vs Bochum 4-1
- D Bochum vs Darmstadt 2-2
- W Darmstadt vs Bochum 1-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bochum's side.