Nurnberg
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.45Bookmakers 54%
Darmstadt
13%
Fair odds 7.62Bookmakers 23%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Nurnberg: 69% here, 54% with bookmakers; Darmstadt: 13% here, 23% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nurnberg | Draw | Darmstadt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Best price on offer | 1.77 | 4.33 | 4.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nurnberg
Nurnberg are rated 80 points above Darmstadt (1412 to 1332), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nurnberg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Nurnberg's chance of winning and takes the same from Darmstadt's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nurnberg
Expected goals 2.4 to 1.0. Nurnberg score 1.3 a match against an average side (2nd in 2. Bundesliga); Darmstadt concede 2.0 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nurnberg
Nurnberg WLDDW, gained 11 rating points; Darmstadt DDLWL, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Darmstadt
Bookmakers rate Darmstadt higher than the model does: Nurnberg 54% against the model's 69%, Darmstadt 23% against 13%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Darmstadt
Nurnberg won 2, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NurnbergDarmstadtNurnberg
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
13 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
11/01
Darmstadt
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 63%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nurnberg | Draw | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg | 41%2.41 | 3%34.60 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.41 | 10%10.44 | 4%22.78 |
| Darmstadt | 5%19.53 | 5%20.58 | 8%12.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Nurnberg wins5Darmstadt wins- L Darmstadt vs Nurnberg 2-0
- L Nurnberg vs Darmstadt 0-1
- W Nurnberg vs Darmstadt 1-0
- D Darmstadt vs Nurnberg 1-1
- L Nurnberg vs Darmstadt 0-1
- L Darmstadt vs Nurnberg 2-0
- W Nurnberg vs Darmstadt 3-1
- L Darmstadt vs Nurnberg 2-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nurnberg's side.