Boca Juniors
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67Bookmakers 68%
Defensa y Justicia
16%
Fair odds 6.29Bookmakers 12%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 68% | 21% | 12% |
| Best price on offer | 1.40 | 4.80 | 8.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors are rated 107 points above Defensa y Justicia (1480 to 1373), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Boca Juniors
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Boca Juniors's chance of winning and takes the same from Defensa y Justicia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Boca Juniors
Expected goals 1.8 to 0.8. Boca Juniors score 1.0 a match against an average side (1st in Liga Profesional); Defensa y Justicia concede 1.5 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Boca Juniors WWWDW, gained 20 rating points; Defensa y Justicia DWLWW, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Boca Juniors
Bookmakers rate Boca Juniors higher than the model does: Boca Juniors 68% against the model's 60%, Defensa y Justicia 12% against 16%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors won 4, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Boca JuniorsDefensa y JusticiaBoca Juniors
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
7 conceded
08/24
08/29
09/05
09/20
10/03
10/09
10/17
10/25
11/01
Defensa y Justicia
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
7 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/11
10/03
10/10
10/16
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Boca Juniors | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 34%2.95 | 1%68.03 | 0%— |
| Level | 22%4.54 | 15%6.88 | 3%39.22 |
| Defensa y Justicia | 5%21.69 | 7%13.93 | 14%7.37 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Boca Juniors wins2Defensa y Justicia wins- W Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors 0-4
- L Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors 2-1
- W Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia 4-0
- D Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors 2-2
- D Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia 0-0
- L Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors 1-0
- D Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia 0-0
- W Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors 0-1
- W Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia 2-0
- D Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia 0-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Boca Juniors's side.