AIK
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.58
Degerfors
15%
Fair odds 6.60
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| AIK | Draw | Degerfors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 21% | 15% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AIK
AIK are rated 116 points above Degerfors (1368 to 1252), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours AIK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to AIK's chance of winning and takes the same from Degerfors's.
-
Attack against defence Favours AIK
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.9. AIK score 0.9 a match against an average side (8th in Allsvenskan); Degerfors concede 2.2 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours AIK
AIK LDWDL, lost 6 rating points; Degerfors LLLLD, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
AIK won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AIKDegerforsAIK
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
22 conceded
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
11/02
Degerfors
4/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | AIK | Draw | Degerfors |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIK | 33%2.99 | 2%56.18 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.12 | 12%8.57 | 3%31.45 |
| Degerfors | 6%16.16 | 7%14.08 | 12%8.29 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3AIK wins3Degerfors wins- L Degerfors vs AIK 2-1
- W Degerfors vs AIK 0-1
- W AIK vs Degerfors 3-0
- W AIK vs Degerfors 2-0
- L Degerfors vs AIK 2-1
- D AIK vs Degerfors 1-1
- D Degerfors vs AIK 1-1
- L Degerfors vs AIK 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from AIK's side.