Ajax
Model pick
78%
Fair odds 1.29
Den Haag
9%
Fair odds 11.61
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ajax | Draw | Den Haag | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 78% | 14% | 9% |
| Elo model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Ajax
Ajax are rated 165 points above Den Haag (1617 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ajax
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Ajax's chance of winning and takes the same from Den Haag's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ajax
Expected goals 2.9 to 0.9. Ajax score 1.9 a match against an average side (1st in Eredivisie); Den Haag concede 1.6 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ajax
Ajax WWWWW, gained 50 rating points; Den Haag LLWDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AjaxDen HaagAjax
7/10 over 2.5
30 scored
11 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Den Haag
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
22 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ajax | Draw | Den Haag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 50%2.00 | 2%41.67 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.39 | 7%14.22 | 3%33.33 |
| Den Haag | 5%19.19 | 4%26.81 | 5%19.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.