Independiente
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.94Bookmakers 54%
Dep. Riestra
18%
Fair odds 5.41Bookmakers 17%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Independiente | Draw | Dep. Riestra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 30% | 18% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Best price on offer | 1.75 | 3.40 | 6.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Independiente
Independiente are rated 68 points above Dep. Riestra (1370 to 1302), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Independiente
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Independiente's chance of winning and takes the same from Dep. Riestra's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Independiente
Expected goals 1.3 to 0.7. Independiente score 0.7 a match against an average side (18th in Liga Profesional); Dep. Riestra concede 1.7 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Independiente DLDDL, lost 20 rating points; Dep. Riestra LLDLD, lost 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Dep. Riestra
Independiente will have had 4 days' rest, Dep. Riestra 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Independiente 54%, Dep. Riestra 17%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Independiente won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
IndependienteDep. RiestraIndependiente
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
12 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/13
09/19
10/02
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/02
Dep. Riestra
2/10 over 2.5
4 scored
12 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/04
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/20
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Independiente | Draw | Dep. Riestra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 35%2.88 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 16%6.44 | 22%4.48 | 1%76.92 |
| Dep. Riestra | 2%53.19 | 6%16.58 | 17%5.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Independiente wins2Dep. Riestra wins- L Dep. Riestra vs Independiente 2-0
- W Dep. Riestra vs Independiente 0-1
- D Independiente vs Dep. Riestra 0-0
- W Independiente vs Dep. Riestra 3-1
- L Dep. Riestra vs Independiente 1-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Independiente's side.