Southampton
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.34
Derby
10%
Fair odds 10.46
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Southampton | Draw | Derby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 16% | 10% |
| Elo model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Southampton
Southampton are rated 165 points above Derby (1571 to 1406), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Southampton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Southampton's chance of winning and takes the same from Derby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Southampton
Expected goals 2.6 to 0.8. Southampton score 1.5 a match against an average side (3rd in Championship); Derby concede 1.7 (23rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Southampton
Southampton DWWDW, gained 17 rating points; Derby LLDLL, lost 41 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
SouthamptonDerbySouthampton
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Derby
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
22 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Southampton | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 44%2.25 | 2%44.05 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%3.98 | 9%11.53 | 3%30.58 |
| Derby | 5%18.59 | 4%23.15 | 6%16.39 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Southampton wins0Derby wins- W Southampton vs Derby 2-1
- D Derby vs Southampton 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Southampton's side.