Nancy
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 1.98
Dijon
24%
Fair odds 4.17
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nancy | Draw | Dijon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Nancy and Dijon are rated almost level (1349 and 1352).
-
Home advantage Favours Nancy
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nancy's chance of winning and takes the same from Dijon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nancy
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Nancy score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in Ligue 2); Dijon concede 1.6 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nancy
Nancy WWWWW, gained 52 rating points; Dijon WLLWW, gained 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
NancyDijonNancy
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/07
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
11/02
Dijon
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/31
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/12
10/16
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nancy | Draw | Dijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy | 27%3.66 | 4%26.32 | 1%88.50 |
| Level | 20%5.00 | 15%6.65 | 9%11.61 |
| Dijon | 4%27.55 | 6%17.36 | 15%6.79 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Nancy wins1Dijon wins- W Dijon vs Nancy 2-3
- L Nancy vs Dijon 0-3
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nancy's side.