Dinamo Bucuresti
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.66Bookmakers 51%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Dinamo Bucuresti: 60% here, 51% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Arges | Draw | Dinamo Bucuresti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 14% | 26% | 60% |
| Elo model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Best price on offer | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.84 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti are rated 169 points above FC Arges (1513 to 1344), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FC Arges
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to FC Arges's chance of winning and takes the same from Dinamo Bucuresti's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dinamo Bucuresti
Expected goals 0.6 to 1.6. FC Arges score 0.7 a match against an average side (20th in Romanian Liga 1); Dinamo Bucuresti concede 1.0 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dinamo Bucuresti
FC Arges LLDLL, lost 24 rating points; Dinamo Bucuresti WDWWW, gained 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours FC Arges
Bookmakers rate FC Arges higher than the model does: FC Arges 22% against the model's 14%, Dinamo Bucuresti 51% against 60%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours FC Arges
FC Arges won 4, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC ArgesDinamo Bucuresti
08/24
09/18
10/12
Dinamo Bucuresti
5/10 over 2.5
21 scored
6 conceded
08/15
09/05
10/25
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-3
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Arges | Draw | Dinamo Bucuresti |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arges | 19%5.36 | 10%9.78 | 7%15.11 |
| Level | 1%— | 15%6.84 | 24%4.21 |
| Dinamo Bucuresti | 0%— | 0%— | 25%4.00 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Dinamo Bucuresti wins- L Dinamo Bucuresti vs FC Arges 2-1
- D FC Arges vs Dinamo Bucuresti 1-1
- W Dinamo Bucuresti vs FC Arges 0-1
- D FC Arges vs Dinamo Bucuresti 1-1
- W FC Arges vs Dinamo Bucuresti 4-2
- L Dinamo Bucuresti vs FC Arges 6-1
- W FC Arges vs Dinamo Bucuresti 2-1
- W Dinamo Bucuresti vs FC Arges 0-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Arges's side.