Halmstad
10%
Fair odds 9.84Bookmakers 13%
Djurgarden
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.42Bookmakers 68%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Halmstad | Draw | Djurgarden | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| Elo model | 14% | 24% | 63% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| Best price on offer | 7.60 | 5.25 | 1.38 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Djurgarden
Djurgarden are rated 251 points above Halmstad (1487 to 1236), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Halmstad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Halmstad's chance of winning and takes the same from Djurgarden's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Djurgarden
Expected goals 0.7 to 2.1. Halmstad score 0.5 a match against an average side (19th in Allsvenskan); Djurgarden concede 1.2 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Halmstad LWLLW, barely moved; Djurgarden WDDWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Halmstad
Bookmakers rate Halmstad higher than the model does: Halmstad 13% against the model's 10%, Djurgarden 68% against 70%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Halmstad won 3, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HalmstadDjurgardenHalmstad
5/10 over 2.5
7 scored
16 conceded
08/17
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/28
Djurgarden
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
6 conceded
08/31
09/03
09/07
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-0
- 1-3
- 0-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Halmstad | Draw | Djurgarden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstad | 13%7.52 | 10%9.63 | 12%8.44 |
| Level | 0%— | 9%10.99 | 30%3.38 |
| Djurgarden | 0%— | 0%— | 25%3.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Halmstad wins4Djurgarden wins- L Djurgarden vs Halmstad 3-0
- D Djurgarden vs Halmstad 1-1
- W Halmstad vs Djurgarden 1-0
- W Halmstad vs Djurgarden 1-0
- L Djurgarden vs Halmstad 2-0
- L Djurgarden vs Halmstad 1-0
- W Halmstad vs Djurgarden 2-0
- L Djurgarden vs Halmstad 1-0
- D Halmstad vs Djurgarden 0-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Halmstad's side.