Sirius
31%
Fair odds 3.20
Djurgarden
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.27
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sirius | Draw | Djurgarden | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Djurgarden
Djurgarden are rated 45 points above Sirius (1487 to 1442), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sirius
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sirius's chance of winning and takes the same from Djurgarden's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Djurgarden
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. Sirius score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in Allsvenskan); Djurgarden concede 1.2 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Djurgarden
Sirius LLDWW, lost 9 rating points; Djurgarden WDDWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Djurgarden
Sirius won 3, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SiriusDjurgardenSirius
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/15
08/21
08/31
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/29
Djurgarden
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
6 conceded
08/31
09/03
09/07
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sirius | Draw | Djurgarden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 23%4.43 | 8%12.84 | 5%19.31 |
| Level | 8%12.39 | 13%7.80 | 18%5.49 |
| Djurgarden | 1%98.04 | 3%32.26 | 21%4.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Sirius wins7Djurgarden wins- W Djurgarden vs Sirius 2-3
- L Djurgarden vs Sirius 8-2
- L Sirius vs Djurgarden 0-1
- L Sirius vs Djurgarden 0-1
- L Djurgarden vs Sirius 2-0
- W Djurgarden vs Sirius 2-4
- D Sirius vs Djurgarden 0-0
- L Sirius vs Djurgarden 0-1
- L Djurgarden vs Sirius 4-0
- W Sirius vs Djurgarden 1-0
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sirius's side.