Bradford
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.73
Doncaster
17%
Fair odds 5.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bradford | Draw | Doncaster | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Elo model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bradford
Bradford are rated 75 points above Doncaster (1361 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bradford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bradford's chance of winning and takes the same from Doncaster's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bradford
Expected goals 1.7 to 0.8. Bradford score 0.8 a match against an average side (15th in League One); Doncaster concede 2.0 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bradford
Bradford LDDWD, lost 6 rating points; Doncaster LLWLL, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Bradford won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BradfordDoncasterBradford
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
6 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Doncaster
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bradford | Draw | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 32%3.16 | 3%32.47 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.31 | 15%6.52 | 6%15.90 |
| Doncaster | 4%27.17 | 5%18.76 | 11%9.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Bradford wins3Doncaster wins- W Bradford vs Doncaster 1-0
- L Doncaster vs Bradford 3-1
- L Doncaster vs Bradford 2-1
- L Bradford vs Doncaster 1-2
- D Bradford vs Doncaster 1-1
- W Doncaster vs Bradford 1-3
- W Doncaster vs Bradford 0-1
- D Bradford vs Doncaster 0-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bradford's side.