Arsenal
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.59
Dortmund
15%
Fair odds 6.79
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arsenal | Draw | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Arsenal
Arsenal are rated 121 points above Dortmund (1772 to 1651), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arsenal
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Arsenal's chance of winning and takes the same from Dortmund's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Arsenal
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.8. Arsenal score 1.8 a match against an average side (6th in Premier League); Dortmund concede 1.1 (2nd best defence in Bundesliga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Arsenal WWWDW, gained 18 rating points; Dortmund WDWWD, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ArsenalDortmundArsenal
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
11/04
Dortmund
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arsenal | Draw | Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 36%2.80 | 3%34.48 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.23 | 13%7.44 | 5%19.19 |
| Dortmund | 4%24.81 | 5%19.61 | 9%10.72 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.