M'gladbach
22%
Fair odds 4.48
Dortmund
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.82
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| M'gladbach | Draw | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Elo model | 18% | 25% | 57% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Dortmund
Dortmund are rated 211 points above M'gladbach (1651 to 1440), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours M'gladbach
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to M'gladbach's chance of winning and takes the same from Dortmund's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dortmund
Expected goals 1.2 to 2.0. M'gladbach score 1.2 a match against an average side (13th in Bundesliga); Dortmund concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dortmund
M'gladbach DWLLL, lost 11 rating points; Dortmund WDWWD, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Dortmund
M'gladbach won 3, drew 1 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
M'gladbachDortmundM'gladbach
9/10 over 2.5
16 scored
25 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Dortmund
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | M'gladbach | Draw | Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| M'gladbach | 14%7.30 | 5%18.28 | 4%25.13 |
| Level | 8%13.05 | 12%8.20 | 19%5.35 |
| Dortmund | 1%73.53 | 4%24.21 | 33%3.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3M'gladbach wins6Dortmund wins- W M'gladbach vs Dortmund 1-0
- L Dortmund vs M'gladbach 2-0
- L Dortmund vs M'gladbach 3-2
- D M'gladbach vs Dortmund 1-1
- L M'gladbach vs Dortmund 1-2
- L Dortmund vs M'gladbach 4-2
- L Dortmund vs M'gladbach 5-2
- W M'gladbach vs Dortmund 4-2
- L Dortmund vs M'gladbach 6-0
- W M'gladbach vs Dortmund 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from M'gladbach's side.