Kaiserslautern
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.91
Dresden
24%
Fair odds 4.19
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kaiserslautern | Draw | Dresden | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kaiserslautern
Kaiserslautern are rated 64 points above Dresden (1379 to 1316), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kaiserslautern
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kaiserslautern's chance of winning and takes the same from Dresden's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kaiserslautern
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Kaiserslautern score 1.0 a match against an average side (9th in 2. Bundesliga); Dresden concede 1.8 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kaiserslautern
Kaiserslautern LWWDW, gained 9 rating points; Dresden LLWDL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
KaiserslauternDresdenKaiserslautern
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
7 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
Dresden
7/10 over 2.5
12 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kaiserslautern | Draw | Dresden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern | 30%3.35 | 4%25.91 | 1%84.03 |
| Level | 19%5.31 | 13%7.63 | 8%12.89 |
| Dresden | 4%24.75 | 6%16.78 | 15%6.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Kaiserslautern wins1Dresden wins- L Dresden vs Kaiserslautern 1-0
- W Kaiserslautern vs Dresden 3-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kaiserslautern's side.