The model and the bookmakers disagree. UC Dublin: 11% here, 22% with bookmakers; Drogheda: 71% here, 53% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| UC Dublin | Draw | Drogheda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Elo model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 24% | 53% |
| Best price on offer | 4.40 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Drogheda
Drogheda are rated 185 points above UC Dublin (1331 to 1146), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours UC Dublin
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to UC Dublin's chance of winning and takes the same from Drogheda's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Drogheda
Expected goals 0.8 to 2.4. UC Dublin score 0.4 a match against an average side; Drogheda concede 1.9 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Drogheda
UC Dublin LLLLL, lost 26 rating points; Drogheda WLWLL, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours UC Dublin
Bookmakers rate UC Dublin higher than the model does: UC Dublin 22% against the model's 11%, Drogheda 53% against 71%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Drogheda
UC Dublin won 1, drew 1 and lost 6 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
UC DublinDroghedaBars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 1-1
- 1-3
- 0-4
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | UC Dublin | Draw | Drogheda |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Dublin | 11%8.90 | 10%10.06 | 14%6.97 |
| Level | 0%— | 7%13.89 | 32%3.17 |
| Drogheda | 0%— | 0%— | 25%3.97 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- L Drogheda vs UC Dublin 3-0
- L UC Dublin vs Drogheda 1-3
- L Drogheda vs UC Dublin 3-1
- L UC Dublin vs Drogheda 0-1
- W UC Dublin vs Drogheda 2-1
- D Drogheda vs UC Dublin 1-1
- L UC Dublin vs Drogheda 0-2
- L Drogheda vs UC Dublin 4-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from UC Dublin's side.