Dumbarton
17%
Fair odds 5.82Bookmakers 22%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Elgin | Draw | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Best price on offer | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Elgin
Elgin are rated 67 points above Dumbarton (1081 to 1014), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Elgin
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Elgin's chance of winning and takes the same from Dumbarton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Elgin
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. Elgin score 0.6 a match against an average side (4th in Scottish League Two); Dumbarton concede 3.4 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Elgin WDWWL, gained 11 rating points; Dumbarton LDLWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Dumbarton
Bookmakers rate Dumbarton higher than the model does: Elgin 54% against the model's 61%, Dumbarton 22% against 17%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Elgin won 4, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ElginDumbarton
08/15
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/31
Dumbarton
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
18 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/12
10/03
10/17
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Elgin | Draw | Dumbarton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin | 37%2.72 | 4%27.47 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.78 | 12%8.14 | 6%16.05 |
| Dumbarton | 4%25.51 | 5%20.08 | 10%9.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Dumbarton wins- L Dumbarton vs Elgin 2-1
- D Elgin vs Dumbarton 1-1
- D Dumbarton vs Elgin 2-2
- W Elgin vs Dumbarton 2-0
- D Dumbarton vs Elgin 1-1
- D Dumbarton vs Elgin 2-2
- L Elgin vs Dumbarton 0-1
- L Dumbarton vs Elgin 1-0
- W Elgin vs Dumbarton 2-0
- W Elgin vs Dumbarton 1-0
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Elgin's side.