St Johnstone
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.58Bookmakers 39%
Dundee
35%
Fair odds 2.85Bookmakers 35%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St Johnstone | Draw | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.75 |
Team news
- Tom Steward Out
- Sam Stanton Out
- Zach Mitchell Out
- Unax Alvarez Out
Sports Mole expects Ross Sinclair in goal and an unchanged back three of Diabate, Mikulic and Alic; Alvarez is not in the Sports Mole list, so his status is from an older Courier report.
- Bobby Wales Out
- Finlay Robertson Out
- Simon Murray Out
Dundee's matchday 12 fixture was postponed, so the rest of the squad should be fit and rested; positions for Robertson and Murray are not confirmed by the sources.
Allowing for this news: St Johnstone 38%, draw 26%, Dundee 36% (xG 1.49 – 1.46). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, livescore.com, sports.yahoo.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
St Johnstone and Dundee are rated almost level (1453 and 1458).
-
Home advantage Favours St Johnstone
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to St Johnstone's chance of winning and takes the same from Dundee's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. St Johnstone score 1.0 a match against an average side (10th in Scottish Premiership); Dundee concede 1.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dundee
St Johnstone DDLDW, barely moved; Dundee WLDWW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (St Johnstone 39%, Dundee 35%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Dundee
St Johnstone won 2, drew 5 and lost 5 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St JohnstoneDundeeSt Johnstone
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/09
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Dundee
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
12 conceded
08/08
08/22
08/30
09/02
09/06
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 55%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St Johnstone | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone | 23%4.31 | 5%19.27 | 2%44.44 |
| Level | 14%7.28 | 15%6.80 | 13%7.86 |
| Dundee | 2%41.67 | 5%19.38 | 21%4.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2St Johnstone wins5Dundee wins- D Dundee vs St Johnstone 1-1
- L St Johnstone vs Dundee 0-2
- D Dundee vs St Johnstone 1-1
- L St Johnstone vs Dundee 1-3
- W Dundee vs St Johnstone 1-2
- L St Johnstone vs Dundee 1-2
- L Dundee vs St Johnstone 2-1
- D St Johnstone vs Dundee 2-2
- D Dundee vs St Johnstone 1-1
- D St Johnstone vs Dundee 0-0
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from St Johnstone's side.