Hibernian
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.56
Dundee United
35%
Fair odds 2.89
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hibernian | Draw | Dundee United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Hibernian and Dundee United are rated almost level (1480 and 1474).
-
Home advantage Favours Hibernian
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hibernian's chance of winning and takes the same from Dundee United's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. Hibernian score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in Scottish Premiership); Dundee United concede 1.4 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dundee United
Hibernian DLLLD, lost 26 rating points; Dundee United DWDWW, gained 36 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Hibernian won 4, drew 5 and lost 5 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HibernianDundee UnitedHibernian
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/03
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
Dundee United
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
15 conceded
08/09
08/22
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hibernian | Draw | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian | 25%3.97 | 6%17.09 | 3%39.22 |
| Level | 13%7.99 | 15%6.69 | 13%7.58 |
| Dundee United | 2%52.91 | 5%22.17 | 19%5.16 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Hibernian wins5Dundee United wins- L Dundee United vs Hibernian 1-0
- W Hibernian vs Dundee United 3-2
- D Dundee United vs Hibernian 1-1
- D Hibernian vs Dundee United 3-3
- W Hibernian vs Dundee United 3-1
- W Dundee United vs Hibernian 1-3
- D Hibernian vs Dundee United 1-1
- L Dundee United vs Hibernian 3-2
- L Dundee United vs Hibernian 2-1
- D Hibernian vs Dundee United 2-2
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hibernian's side.