Sochaux
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.34
Dunkerque
30%
Fair odds 3.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sochaux | Draw | Dunkerque | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Sochaux and Dunkerque are rated almost level (1336 and 1345).
-
Home advantage Favours Sochaux
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sochaux's chance of winning and takes the same from Dunkerque's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sochaux
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Sochaux score 0.8 a match against an average side (17th in Ligue 2); Dunkerque concede 1.7 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sochaux LLLDD, lost 26 rating points; Dunkerque LDWLL, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
SochauxDunkerqueSochaux
2/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/09
10/17
10/23
11/02
Dunkerque
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/09
10/17
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sochaux | Draw | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sochaux | 25%3.93 | 5%19.84 | 2%52.91 |
| Level | 15%6.49 | 16%6.31 | 12%8.48 |
| Dunkerque | 2%42.37 | 5%20.24 | 17%5.79 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Sochaux wins0Dunkerque wins- D Dunkerque vs Sochaux 0-0
- W Sochaux vs Dunkerque 1-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sochaux's side.