Montrose
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10Bookmakers 41%
East Fife
26%
Fair odds 3.82Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Montrose | Draw | East Fife | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Montrose
Montrose are rated 59 points above East Fife (1169 to 1110), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Montrose
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Montrose's chance of winning and takes the same from East Fife's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Montrose
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Montrose score 0.6 a match against an average side (5th in Scottish League One); East Fife concede 2.5 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Montrose
Montrose DWDLL, barely moved; East Fife WLLDL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours East Fife
Bookmakers rate East Fife higher than the model does: Montrose 41% against the model's 48%, East Fife 31% against 26%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Montrose
Montrose won 7, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MontroseEast FifeMontrose
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/24
10/31
East Fife
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
14 conceded
08/22
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 50%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Montrose | Draw | East Fife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montrose | 29%3.48 | 5%20.96 | 2%63.69 |
| Level | 17%5.97 | 16%6.44 | 10%9.93 |
| East Fife | 3%38.76 | 5%20.24 | 15%6.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Montrose wins0East Fife wins- W East Fife vs Montrose 1-2
- W Montrose vs East Fife 1-0
- W East Fife vs Montrose 2-3
- W Montrose vs East Fife 2-1
- D East Fife vs Montrose 1-1
- D Montrose vs East Fife 0-0
- W East Fife vs Montrose 0-2
- W Montrose vs East Fife 4-1
- W East Fife vs Montrose 0-2
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Montrose's side.