Queen of Sth
31%
Fair odds 3.23Bookmakers 23%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. East Kilbride: 44% here, 54% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Queen of Sth | Draw | East Kilbride | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Best price on offer | 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.73 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Queen of Sth and East Kilbride are rated almost level (1167 and 1171).
-
Home advantage Favours Queen of Sth
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Queen of Sth's chance of winning and takes the same from East Kilbride's.
-
Attack against defence Favours East Kilbride
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. Queen of Sth score 0.6 a match against an average side (9th in Scottish League One); East Kilbride concede 2.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours East Kilbride
Queen of Sth LWLWW, barely moved; East Kilbride LDDWW, gained 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours East Kilbride
Bookmakers rate East Kilbride higher than the model does: Queen of Sth 23% against the model's 31%, East Kilbride 54% against 44%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Queen of SthEast KilbrideQueen of Sth
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
28 conceded
08/29
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/31
08/15
08/22
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/17
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 64%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Queen of Sth | Draw | East Kilbride |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queen of Sth | 21%4.83 | 7%14.53 | 4%23.04 |
| Level | 9%10.70 | 14%7.39 | 18%5.61 |
| East Kilbride | 1%75.76 | 4%27.32 | 22%4.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Queen of Sth wins- L East Kilbride vs Queen of Sth 5-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Queen of Sth's side.