Eastleigh
21%
Fair odds 4.76
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tamworth | Draw | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Tamworth
Tamworth are rated 30 points above Eastleigh (1035 to 1005), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tamworth
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tamworth's chance of winning and takes the same from Eastleigh's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Tamworth
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.1. Tamworth score 0.6 a match against an average side (9th in National League); Eastleigh concede 3.4 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tamworth
Tamworth LWLWW, gained 14 rating points; Eastleigh DLWLL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Tamworth won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TamworthEastleigh
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Eastleigh
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tamworth | Draw | Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | 32%3.12 | 4%26.60 | 1%86.21 |
| Level | 20%4.90 | 12%8.09 | 7%13.79 |
| Eastleigh | 4%22.94 | 6%17.76 | 13%7.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Eastleigh wins- D Eastleigh vs Tamworth 1-1
- W Tamworth vs Eastleigh 1-0
- W Tamworth vs Eastleigh 2-0
- L Eastleigh vs Tamworth 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tamworth's side.