Forfar
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.58Bookmakers 30%
Edinburgh City
35%
Fair odds 2.85Bookmakers 44%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Forfar: 39% here, 30% with bookmakers; Edinburgh City: 35% here, 44% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Forfar | Draw | Edinburgh City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Best price on offer | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City are rated 10 points above Forfar (1031 to 1020), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Forfar
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Forfar's chance of winning and takes the same from Edinburgh City's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. Forfar score 0.5 a match against an average side (8th in Scottish League Two); Edinburgh City concede 3.1 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Edinburgh City
Forfar LLLLW, lost 25 rating points; Edinburgh City WDLDW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Edinburgh City
Bookmakers rate Edinburgh City higher than the model does: Forfar 30% against the model's 39%, Edinburgh City 44% against 35%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Edinburgh City
Forfar won 3, drew 4 and lost 6 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ForfarEdinburgh CityForfar
8/10 over 2.5
11 scored
23 conceded
08/15
08/28
09/05
09/19
10/03
10/17
10/31
Edinburgh City
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
12 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 55%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Forfar | Draw | Edinburgh City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forfar | 25%4.08 | 6%17.67 | 2%40.82 |
| Level | 13%7.89 | 15%6.72 | 13%7.68 |
| Edinburgh City | 2%50.00 | 5%21.23 | 20%4.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Forfar wins6Edinburgh City wins- D Edinburgh City vs Forfar 1-1
- W Forfar vs Edinburgh City 4-0
- D Edinburgh City vs Forfar 0-0
- L Forfar vs Edinburgh City 2-3
- D Edinburgh City vs Forfar 1-1
- D Edinburgh City vs Forfar 0-0
- L Forfar vs Edinburgh City 0-1
- L Edinburgh City vs Forfar 2-0
- L Forfar vs Edinburgh City 0-3
- L Edinburgh City vs Forfar 2-0
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Forfar's side.