Castellon
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.71
Eibar
19%
Fair odds 5.38
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Castellon | Draw | Eibar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Castellon
Castellon are rated 43 points above Eibar (1466 to 1423), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Castellon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Castellon's chance of winning and takes the same from Eibar's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Castellon
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Castellon score 1.3 a match against an average side (1st in La Liga 2); Eibar concede 1.5 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Castellon
Castellon DWWLD, gained 12 rating points; Eibar DLDLW, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Castellon won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CastellonEibarCastellon
5/10 over 2.5
22 scored
5 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/28
10/04
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Eibar
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
11 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/19
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Castellon | Draw | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castellon | 36%2.82 | 4%26.95 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%5.02 | 13%7.70 | 6%15.48 |
| Eibar | 4%27.10 | 5%19.27 | 12%8.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Castellon wins1Eibar wins- W Castellon vs Eibar 2-1
- D Eibar vs Castellon 0-0
- W Castellon vs Eibar 2-0
- L Eibar vs Castellon 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Castellon's side.