Girona
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.78
Eibar
20%
Fair odds 5.01
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Girona | Draw | Eibar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Girona
Girona are rated 45 points above Eibar (1468 to 1423), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Girona
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Girona's chance of winning and takes the same from Eibar's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Girona
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Girona score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in La Liga 2); Eibar concede 1.5 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Girona LWWDD, barely moved; Eibar DLDLW, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
GironaEibarGirona
4/10 over 2.5
20 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/04
10/12
10/18
Eibar
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
11 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/19
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Girona | Draw | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 36%2.74 | 5%21.19 | 1%72.99 |
| Level | 18%5.71 | 14%7.13 | 8%12.50 |
| Eibar | 3%39.06 | 4%23.26 | 11%9.06 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Girona wins2Eibar wins- L Girona vs Eibar 0-1
- L Eibar vs Girona 4-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Girona's side.