Paderborn
36%
Fair odds 2.79Bookmakers 31%
Ein Frankfurt
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.52Bookmakers 44%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Paderborn | Draw | Ein Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Best price on offer | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.20 |
Team news
- Timur Gayret Out
- Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant Out
- Oliver Batista Meier Out
- Marcel Hoffmeier Doubtful
- Marvin Pieringer Doubtful
Latest NW.de preview (6 Nov) says only Gayret is out and the squad is almost complete; Sportsmole/WhoScored/FotMob list more absences, so the Paderborn list is conflicting.
- Jessic Ngankam Out
- Mario Götze Out
- Robin Koch Doubtful
Hütter says Ilicevic is back in the squad; Lilian Brassier and Jeremiah Maluze (or Nnamdi Collins) are the likely central defence options if Koch is out.
Allowing for this news: Paderborn 35%, draw 24%, Ein Frankfurt 41% (xG 1.54 – 1.67). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: nw.de, sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com, sports.yahoo.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ein Frankfurt
Ein Frankfurt are rated 63 points above Paderborn (1489 to 1425), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Paderborn
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Paderborn's chance of winning and takes the same from Ein Frankfurt's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.6. Paderborn score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Bundesliga); Ein Frankfurt concede 1.5 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Paderborn
Paderborn DWDLW, gained 16 rating points; Ein Frankfurt WLWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Ein Frankfurt
Bookmakers rate Ein Frankfurt higher than the model does: Paderborn 31% against the model's 36%, Ein Frankfurt 44% against 40%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PaderbornEin FrankfurtPaderborn
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
05/08
05/17
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Ein Frankfurt
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
23 conceded
05/08
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 65%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Paderborn | Draw | Ein Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 20%4.99 | 5%21.37 | 2%43.48 |
| Level | 13%7.58 | 13%7.76 | 12%8.00 |
| Ein Frankfurt | 3%32.79 | 6%16.81 | 25%3.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.