Castellon
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.52
Eldense
14%
Fair odds 7.10
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Castellon | Draw | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Elo model | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Castellon
Castellon are rated 157 points above Eldense (1466 to 1309), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Castellon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Castellon's chance of winning and takes the same from Eldense's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Castellon
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. Castellon score 1.3 a match against an average side (1st in La Liga 2); Eldense concede 1.7 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Castellon DWWLD, gained 12 rating points; Eldense LLWWW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CastellonEldenseCastellon
5/10 over 2.5
22 scored
5 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/28
10/04
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Eldense
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/02
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Castellon | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castellon | 42%2.37 | 4%27.70 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.87 | 11%8.70 | 5%18.59 |
| Eldense | 3%28.74 | 4%23.53 | 8%12.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Castellon wins0Eldense wins- D Castellon vs Eldense 1-1
- W Eldense vs Castellon 2-3
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Castellon's side.