Las Palmas
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.16Bookmakers 43%
Eldense
27%
Fair odds 3.66Bookmakers 30%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Las Palmas | Draw | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 26% | 27% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Las Palmas
Las Palmas are rated 88 points above Eldense (1397 to 1309), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Las Palmas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Las Palmas's chance of winning and takes the same from Eldense's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Las Palmas
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Las Palmas score 0.9 a match against an average side (16th in La Liga 2); Eldense concede 1.7 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Eldense
Las Palmas WWLLD, lost 13 rating points; Eldense LLWWW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Eldense
Bookmakers rate Eldense higher than the model does: Las Palmas 43% against the model's 46%, Eldense 30% against 27%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Las PalmasEldenseLas Palmas
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/20
09/27
10/04
10/11
10/17
11/02
Eldense
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/02
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Las Palmas | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 31%3.23 | 6%16.26 | 2%42.37 |
| Level | 14%7.12 | 15%6.46 | 12%8.35 |
| Eldense | 2%58.82 | 4%26.46 | 14%7.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.