Hacken
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
Elfsborg
24%
Fair odds 4.21
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hacken | Draw | Elfsborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hacken
Hacken are rated 16 points above Elfsborg (1424 to 1408), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hacken
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hacken's chance of winning and takes the same from Elfsborg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hacken
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Hacken score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in Allsvenskan); Elfsborg concede 1.5 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hacken WDWWW, gained 26 rating points; Elfsborg WDDDW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Hacken won 4, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HackenElfsborgHacken
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
4 conceded
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Elfsborg
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
9 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hacken | Draw | Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hacken | 31%3.25 | 4%26.46 | 1%— |
| Level | 18%5.67 | 14%7.01 | 7%13.85 |
| Elfsborg | 3%29.33 | 6%16.84 | 16%6.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Hacken wins3Elfsborg wins- D Elfsborg vs Hacken 1-1
- L Hacken vs Elfsborg 1-2
- W Elfsborg vs Hacken 0-2
- W Elfsborg vs Hacken 1-3
- L Hacken vs Elfsborg 3-5
- W Hacken vs Elfsborg 3-1
- W Elfsborg vs Hacken 0-2
- D Elfsborg vs Hacken 4-4
- D Hacken vs Elfsborg 1-1
- L Elfsborg vs Hacken 4-2
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hacken's side.