Hammarby
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.66Bookmakers 69%
Elfsborg
17%
Fair odds 5.93Bookmakers 12%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Hammarby: 60% here, 69% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hammarby | Draw | Elfsborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Best price on offer | 1.37 | 5.40 | 8.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Hammarby
Hammarby are rated 106 points above Elfsborg (1514 to 1408), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hammarby
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Hammarby's chance of winning and takes the same from Elfsborg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hammarby
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.9. Hammarby score 1.3 a match against an average side (1st in Allsvenskan); Elfsborg concede 1.5 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hammarby WWWWL, gained 17 rating points; Elfsborg WDDDW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Hammarby
Bookmakers rate Hammarby higher than the model does: Hammarby 69% against the model's 60%, Elfsborg 12% against 17%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Hammarby
Hammarby won 6, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HammarbyElfsborgHammarby
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
7 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Elfsborg
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
9 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hammarby | Draw | Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby | 33%3.01 | 2%48.78 | 0%— |
| Level | 22%4.46 | 13%7.67 | 4%27.17 |
| Elfsborg | 5%19.46 | 7%14.35 | 13%7.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Hammarby wins3Elfsborg wins- W Elfsborg vs Hammarby 1-2
- W Hammarby vs Elfsborg 3-0
- W Elfsborg vs Hammarby 0-2
- D Elfsborg vs Hammarby 0-0
- W Hammarby vs Elfsborg 3-0
- W Hammarby vs Elfsborg 1-0
- L Elfsborg vs Hammarby 2-0
- L Elfsborg vs Hammarby 2-1
- W Hammarby vs Elfsborg 3-0
- D Elfsborg vs Hammarby 2-2
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hammarby's side.