Benevento
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.97
Empoli
23%
Fair odds 4.26
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Benevento | Draw | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Benevento
Benevento are rated 21 points above Empoli (1333 to 1312), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Benevento
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Benevento's chance of winning and takes the same from Empoli's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Benevento
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Benevento score 0.9 a match against an average side (14th in Serie B); Empoli concede 1.8 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Benevento
Benevento LDWDW, gained 15 rating points; Empoli DLLDL, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BeneventoEmpoliBenevento
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Empoli
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Benevento | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 27%3.65 | 4%26.95 | 1%93.46 |
| Level | 20%4.92 | 15%6.59 | 8%11.88 |
| Empoli | 4%27.40 | 6%17.33 | 14%6.92 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.