Padova
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.41Bookmakers 43%
Empoli
32%
Fair odds 3.16Bookmakers 29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Padova | Draw | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Padova
Padova are rated 21 points above Empoli (1333 to 1312), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Padova
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Padova's chance of winning and takes the same from Empoli's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Padova
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Padova score 0.8 a match against an average side (21st in Serie B); Empoli concede 1.8 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Padova
Padova DWWLL, barely moved; Empoli DLLDL, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Padova 43%, Empoli 29%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PadovaEmpoliPadova
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Empoli
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 47%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Padova | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 23%4.43 | 4%23.58 | 2%65.79 |
| Level | 17%6.06 | 16%6.39 | 11%9.10 |
| Empoli | 3%33.11 | 6%17.01 | 20%5.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Padova wins1Empoli wins- W Padova vs Empoli 1-0
- L Empoli vs Padova 3-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Padova's side.