Rizespor
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96Bookmakers 48%
Erzurumspor
24%
Fair odds 4.08Bookmakers 26%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rizespor | Draw | Erzurumspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 24% | 24% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 1.97 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Neutral
Rizespor and Erzurumspor are rated almost level (1483 and 1492).
-
Home advantage Favours Rizespor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Rizespor's chance of winning and takes the same from Erzurumspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rizespor
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Rizespor score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Süper Lig); Erzurumspor concede 1.4 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Erzurumspor
Rizespor DLLLD, lost 17 rating points; Erzurumspor LWWDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Erzurumspor
Bookmakers rate Erzurumspor higher than the model does: Rizespor 48% against the model's 51%, Erzurumspor 26% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RizesporErzurumsporRizespor
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/26
10/31
Erzurumspor
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
15 conceded
08/16
08/21
08/28
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 52%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rizespor | Draw | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | 31%3.24 | 5%20.92 | 2%58.82 |
| Level | 18%5.66 | 14%7.24 | 10%10.48 |
| Erzurumspor | 3%32.89 | 5%20.45 | 14%7.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.