Ath Bilbao
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.80
Espanol
20%
Fair odds 5.01
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ath Bilbao | Draw | Espanol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao are rated 51 points above Espanol (1503 to 1452), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ath Bilbao
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ath Bilbao's chance of winning and takes the same from Espanol's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ath Bilbao
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Ath Bilbao score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in La Liga); Espanol concede 1.4 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao WWLDD, gained 6 rating points; Espanol WLLDL, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Ath Bilbao won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Ath BilbaoEspanolAth Bilbao
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/27
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Espanol
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/09
10/17
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ath Bilbao | Draw | Espanol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao | 34%2.93 | 4%23.04 | 1%82.64 |
| Level | 19%5.26 | 15%6.79 | 8%12.50 |
| Espanol | 3%35.71 | 5%21.88 | 11%8.91 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Ath Bilbao wins3Espanol wins- L Espanol vs Ath Bilbao 2-0
- L Ath Bilbao vs Espanol 1-2
- D Espanol vs Ath Bilbao 1-1
- W Ath Bilbao vs Espanol 4-1
- W Espanol vs Ath Bilbao 1-2
- L Ath Bilbao vs Espanol 0-1
- W Ath Bilbao vs Espanol 2-1
- D Espanol vs Ath Bilbao 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ath Bilbao's side.