Talleres Cordoba
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.71Bookmakers 35%
Estudiantes L.P.
34%
Fair odds 2.98Bookmakers 35%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Talleres Cordoba | Draw | Estudiantes L.P. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P. are rated 35 points above Talleres Cordoba (1365 to 1331), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Talleres Cordoba
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Talleres Cordoba's chance of winning and takes the same from Estudiantes L.P.'s.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.1. Talleres Cordoba score 0.7 a match against an average side (20th in Liga Profesional); Estudiantes L.P. concede 1.5 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Talleres Cordoba WLLDL, barely moved; Estudiantes L.P. DLLDW, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Talleres Cordoba 35%, Estudiantes L.P. 35%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Talleres Cordoba won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Talleres CordobaEstudiantes L.P.Talleres Cordoba
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
08/25
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/04
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/31
Estudiantes L.P.
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/22
10/05
10/18
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Talleres Cordoba | Draw | Estudiantes L.P. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talleres Cordoba | 28%3.57 | 6%17.01 | 2%60.24 |
| Level | 9%11.60 | 19%5.23 | 11%8.79 |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 1%— | 4%28.25 | 21%4.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Talleres Cordoba wins2Estudiantes L.P. wins- D Estudiantes L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba 0-0
- W Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. 1-0
- L Estudiantes L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba 1-0
- L Estudiantes L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba 1-0
- W Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. 2-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Talleres Cordoba's side.