Rosario Central
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.30Bookmakers 78%
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
7%
Fair odds 14.95Bookmakers 7%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rosario Central | Draw | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| Elo model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Best price on offer | 1.22 | 6.50 | 17.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rosario Central
Rosario Central are rated 201 points above Estudiantes Rio Cuarto (1446 to 1244), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rosario Central
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Rosario Central's chance of winning and takes the same from Estudiantes Rio Cuarto's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rosario Central
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.6. Rosario Central score 1.0 a match against an average side (2nd in Liga Profesional); Estudiantes Rio Cuarto concede 2.1 (31st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Rosario Central
Rosario Central WWWWD, gained 30 rating points; Estudiantes Rio Cuarto LLWLL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Rosario Central 78%, Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 7%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Rosario CentralEstudiantes Rio CuartoRosario Central
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
08/25
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/06
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/31
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
6/10 over 2.5
8 scored
15 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/15
09/20
10/05
10/11
10/18
10/26
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rosario Central | Draw | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 35%2.84 | 0%— | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.33 | 9%11.49 | 0%— |
| Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 9%10.78 | 8%13.18 | 8%11.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Rosario Central wins0Estudiantes Rio Cuarto wins- W Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Rosario Central 1-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rosario Central's side.