Brentford
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.21
Everton
28%
Fair odds 3.58
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brentford | Draw | Everton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brentford
Brentford are rated 38 points above Everton (1592 to 1554), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brentford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Brentford's chance of winning and takes the same from Everton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brentford
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.1. Brentford score 1.6 a match against an average side (10th in Premier League); Everton concede 1.0 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brentford
Brentford WDLDW, gained 14 rating points; Everton WLLDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Brentford won 3, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BrentfordEvertonBrentford
5/10 over 2.5
17 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/31
Everton
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brentford | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 26%3.81 | 5%21.55 | 2%63.29 |
| Level | 17%5.91 | 16%6.28 | 11%9.33 |
| Everton | 3%37.59 | 5%19.38 | 16%6.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Brentford wins3Everton wins- D Brentford vs Everton 2-2
- W Everton vs Brentford 2-4
- D Brentford vs Everton 1-1
- D Everton vs Brentford 0-0
- L Everton vs Brentford 1-0
- L Brentford vs Everton 1-3
- L Everton vs Brentford 1-0
- D Brentford vs Everton 1-1
- W Everton vs Brentford 2-3
- W Brentford vs Everton 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brentford's side.