Feyenoord
Model pick
79%
Fair odds 1.27
Excelsior
8%
Fair odds 12.15
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Feyenoord | Draw | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Feyenoord
Feyenoord are rated 171 points above Excelsior (1602 to 1431), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Feyenoord
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Feyenoord's chance of winning and takes the same from Excelsior's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Feyenoord
Expected goals 3.0 to 0.9. Feyenoord score 1.7 a match against an average side (4th in Eredivisie); Excelsior concede 1.9 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Feyenoord
Feyenoord LDDLW, lost 18 rating points; Excelsior LLLLD, lost 47 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Feyenoord
Feyenoord won 6, drew 0 and lost 0 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FeyenoordExcelsiorFeyenoord
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
16 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Excelsior
9/10 over 2.5
12 scored
28 conceded
08/15
08/29
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Feyenoord | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 54%1.85 | 3%36.76 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.85 | 7%14.66 | 3%32.26 |
| Excelsior | 4%23.58 | 3%31.45 | 5%21.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Feyenoord wins0Excelsior wins- W Feyenoord vs Excelsior 2-1
- W Excelsior vs Feyenoord 1-2
- W Feyenoord vs Excelsior 4-0
- W Excelsior vs Feyenoord 2-4
- W Excelsior vs Feyenoord 0-2
- W Feyenoord vs Excelsior 5-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Feyenoord's side.