Huddersfield
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.44
Exeter
11%
Fair odds 8.90
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Huddersfield | Draw | Exeter | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 69% | 19% | 11% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Team news
- Jack Whatmough Out
- Herbie Kane Out
- Marcus McGuane Out
- Murray Wallace Out
- Bojan Radulovic Out
Rotation expected
Sports Mole's preview says Drury may rotate the side; Ryan Ledson and David Kasumu were not confirmed in the latest reports, so I have not listed them.
- Jack Fitzwater Out
- Jake Doyle-Hayes Out
- Gwion Edwards Out
- Ajay Matthews Out
- Danny Rose Out
- Daniel Watts Out
Manager Matt Taylor says Ed and Vinny-type squad players need to step up; regular-starter status and injury details for the four non-captain names were not confirmed in the reports found.
Allowing for this news: Huddersfield 65%, draw 21%, Exeter 14% (xG 2.05 – 0.85). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, sports.yahoo.com, weareterriers.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Huddersfield
Huddersfield are rated 136 points above Exeter (1417 to 1281), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Huddersfield
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Huddersfield's chance of winning and takes the same from Exeter's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Huddersfield
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.8. Huddersfield score 1.2 a match against an average side (1st in League One); Exeter concede 1.8 (1st best defence in League Two).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Huddersfield
Huddersfield DWWWW, gained 39 rating points; Exeter LWWDW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Exeter
Huddersfield will have had 4 days' rest, Exeter 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Huddersfield won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HuddersfieldExeterHuddersfield
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Exeter
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
5 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Huddersfield | Draw | Exeter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield | 41%2.46 | 3%37.88 | 1%— |
| Level | 25%3.99 | 11%8.70 | 4%23.64 |
| Exeter | 4%23.75 | 4%22.88 | 7%14.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Huddersfield wins1Exeter wins- D Huddersfield vs Exeter 2-2
- W Exeter vs Huddersfield 0-1
- L Exeter vs Huddersfield 3-1
- W Huddersfield vs Exeter 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Huddersfield's side.