Trabzonspor
Model pick
78%
Fair odds 1.28
Eyupspor
8%
Fair odds 12.64
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Trabzonspor | Draw | Eyupspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Elo model | 75% | 18% | 7% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor are rated 226 points above Eyupspor (1628 to 1402), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Trabzonspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Trabzonspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Eyupspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Trabzonspor
Expected goals 2.8 to 0.8. Trabzonspor score 1.7 a match against an average side (3rd in Süper Lig); Eyupspor concede 1.7 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor LWWWW, gained 14 rating points; Eyupspor LLLLL, lost 44 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor won 3, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TrabzonsporEyupsporTrabzonspor
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
7 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Eyupspor
5/10 over 2.5
3 scored
28 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 4-0
- 1-1
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Trabzonspor | Draw | Eyupspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | 48%2.10 | 2%51.55 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%3.99 | 8%13.07 | 3%38.91 |
| Eyupspor | 6%18.15 | 4%24.75 | 5%19.16 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Trabzonspor wins0Eyupspor wins- W Eyupspor vs Trabzonspor 0-1
- W Trabzonspor vs Eyupspor 2-0
- W Trabzonspor vs Eyupspor 1-0
- D Eyupspor vs Trabzonspor 0-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Trabzonspor's side.