Inter D'Escaldes
22%
Fair odds 4.48
FC Copenhagen
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Inter D'Escaldes | Draw | FC Copenhagen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 51% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen are rated 166 points above Inter D'Escaldes (1497 to 1331), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Inter D'Escaldes
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Inter D'Escaldes's chance of winning and takes the same from FC Copenhagen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Copenhagen
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.9. Inter D'Escaldes score 0.9 a match against an average side; FC Copenhagen concede 1.4 (1st best defence in Danish Superliga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Inter D'Escaldes LLL, barely moved; FC Copenhagen WWDDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Inter D'EscaldesFC CopenhagenInter D'Escaldes
2/3 over 2.5
2 scored
7 conceded
10/15
10/22
11/05
FC Copenhagen
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
7 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Inter D'Escaldes | Draw | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter D'Escaldes | 18%5.51 | 9%10.92 | 8%12.20 |
| Level | 4%23.87 | 11%8.90 | 24%4.22 |
| FC Copenhagen | 0%— | 2%57.47 | 23%4.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.